Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0945…4ce5 crypto 492 markets active 7h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-5%) realized −$81 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%263W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$17
14 days−$5
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$150
sports 7% +$13
other 2% +$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 53% +1.1%
≤30d 255 -9.1% -17.7% 59% 46% -12.9%
≤90d 486 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 42% -17.4%
all 486 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 42% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 42% -17.4%
10% -23.7% 33% -25.3%
15% -31.1% 25% -32.6%
20% -37.9% 20% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses263 / 223
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)486 / 492
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 71¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$4 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +276%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $3 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 9h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $2 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 33h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $3 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $3 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $2 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 33h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 33h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $3 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $3 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $3 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $7 45h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 89¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.47 · official $13.38 (match) · 1148 history records