Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0946…b6e4 sports 426 markets active 2d ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-7%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%229W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$13
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$58
other 20% −$64
crypto 2% −$3
culture 1% −$9
politics 1% +$1
world 1% −$3
weather 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.8% -17.5% 68% 39% -17.5%
≤30d 291 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 41% -18.4%
≤90d 397 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 40% -18.4%
all 426 -7.2% -16.1% 54% 42% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -17.7%
10% -24.1% 33% -25.5%
15% -31.4% 23% -32.7%
20% -38.1% 12% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses229 / 197
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)426 / 426
History coverage132d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 426 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $2 $0 +27%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $2 −$1 -77%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $2 $0 +32%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +31%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -81%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $2 $0 +24%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $2 −$1 -64%
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Raphael Perot Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $3 −$1 -30%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $2 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +38%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $2 $0 +18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $2 2d
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 87¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 71¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 86¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 90¢ $2 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 94¢ $2 2d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 85¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 78¢ $2 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 49¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 81¢ $2 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 76¢ $2 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 86¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $2 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Zeynep Sonmez 94¢ $2 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 70¢ $2 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 21¢ $0 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 73¢ $2 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 88¢ $2 4d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alexander Shevchenko 97¢ $2 4d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 29¢ $1 4d
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano BUY Oliver Tarvet 74¢ $2 4d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 83¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 75¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 92¢ $2 4d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 86¢ $2 4d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $2 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 96¢ $2 4d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 34¢ $1 4d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 73¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 860 history records