Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0947…f948 sports 696 markets active 2d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,559 (-10%) realized −$1,544 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%390W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$129
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$578
other 14% −$793
crypto 4% −$282
politics 1% +$79
world 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 45% -25.7%
≤30d 95 -19.6% -27.2% 47% 44% -23.0%
≤90d 160 -12.2% -20.6% 47% 41% -21.7%
all 694 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 53% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 53% -18.6%
10% -23.0% 44% -26.4%
15% -30.4% 35% -33.5%
20% -37.2% 23% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,544
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses390 / 304
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)694 / 696
History coverage122d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $37 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Matthieu Pavon finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $9 +$10 +118%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Jacob Bridgeman finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 14 $12 +$6 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +31%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +105%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 +$7 +50%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$1 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $21 42h
LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $2 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 42h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $36 45h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $12 2d
LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $12 2d
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 43¢ $8 2d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $9 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $5 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $9 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 37¢ $2 3d
Will Jacob Bridgeman finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope SELL Yes 49¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $19 3d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope SELL Yes 94¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $3 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 39¢ $4 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1792 history records