Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0947…a830 sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,600 (-14%) realized −$2,585 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%54W / 137L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days−$271
14 days−$456
30 days−$1,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,996
other 25% −$814
finance 6% −$83
politics 6% −$417
culture 3% +$135
world 2% −$171
crypto 1% −$99
weather 0% −$20
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.4% -3.8% 56% 56% -18.3%
≤30d 31 +15.1% +4.1% 42% 42% -19.8%
≤90d 139 -23.2% -30.5% 28% 28% -27.8%
all 191 -19.2% -26.9% 28% 28% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 28% -27.1%
10% -33.9% 27% -34.1%
15% -40.3% 26% -40.4%
20% -46.1% 26% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$78 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$2,585
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses54 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage175d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 31¢ 18¢ $37 $22 −$15 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen Jun 29 $205 −$200 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jun 29 $191 +$140 +73%
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Jun 29 $750 −$738 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $357 +$372 +104%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $506 +$171 +34%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $305 +$288 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $81 +$123 +152%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $174 −$170 -98%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $258 −$258 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $78 −$75 -96%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,830 −$1,112 -61%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $811 +$608 +75%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $298 −$288 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 17 $103 +$90 +87%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $610 +$590 +97%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $204 +$441 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 +$211 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $611 −$424 -69%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $51 +$92 +179%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $124 −$11 -9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou Jun 14 $90 −$16 -17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 10 $81 −$80 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $59 +$296 +504%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $97 −$95 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 20 $162 −$156 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 20 $416 −$404 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 15 $82 −$54 -66%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 15 $130 −$60 -46%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $210 −$206 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 12 $50 −$11 -23%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House May 11 $103 +$15 +15%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Laura Siegemund May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marton Fucsovics vs Dino Prizmic May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona SC vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Aleksandar Kov May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucc May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen BUY Leylah Fernandez 19¢ $205 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $44 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $200 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $23 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $33 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Sebastian Baez 88¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez BUY Sebastian Baez 50¢ $191 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 47¢ $750 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 70¢ $424 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 33¢ $204 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 79¢ $678 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 58¢ $506 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Pablo Carreno Busta 87¢ $538 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Pablo Carreno Busta 87¢ $55 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 44¢ $305 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 69¢ $304 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 34¢ $153 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 22h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 7¢ $21 6d
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 28¢ $153 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $52 7d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $26 7d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $258 8d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $508 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.20 · official $0.00 · 453 history records