Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x094a…bdf1
other · 38 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage461d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 −$5 -26%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 -18%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 27 $13 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? Mar 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $1 $0 +29%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$1
world 19% −$4
politics 10% $0
crypto 8% +$1
sports 8% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $1 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $12 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $12 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $21 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $21 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $10 347d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $2 347d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 352d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 388d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $12 410d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $13 410d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $13 410d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? SELL No 96¢ $13 410d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? BUY No 96¢ $13 410d
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian SELL No 100¢ $13 410d
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian BUY No 99¢ $13 411d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 95¢ $12 411d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 95¢ $12 411d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $13 411d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $13 412d
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? SELL No 88¢ $12 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 5 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 5 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -14.1%
all 37 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 5% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.73 · official $28.73 (match) · 121 history records