Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x094b…2a4f crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%72W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
other 0% +$1
tech 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 75 -3.4% -12.6% 96% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 1% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses72 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage238d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 14? May 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 7? May 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? Apr 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 31? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? Mar 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 10? Mar 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 6? Mar 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 16? Feb 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 15? Feb 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 9? Feb 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3? Feb 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 25? Jan 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,800 on January 22? Jan 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 19? Jan 20 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $112 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $104 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $108 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $6 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $110 49d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 52d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $6 55d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $109 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $105 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $109 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $113 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $112 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $109 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $104 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $104 90d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 90d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? BUY No 93¢ $5 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $107 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $111 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $106 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.86 · official $111.86 (match) · 153 history records