Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

09 0x094c…c7a7 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$610 (+20%) realized +$615 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip

Net edge+67%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$107

7 days+$1,309

14 days+$1,554

30 days+$1,554

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+66.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+57.1%	+42.1%	60%	60%	+77.1%
≤30d	19	+84.3%	+66.7%	68%	68%	+82.2%
≤90d	19	+84.3%	+66.7%	68%	68%	+82.2%
all	19	+84.3%	+66.7%	68%	68%	+82.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+66.7%	68%	+82.2%
10%	+50.8%	68%	+64.8%
15%	+36.2%	68%	+48.9%
20%	+22.9%	63%	+34.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 27% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +84% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +160% → late +16% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$145 vs −$55 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.69 per $1 lost it wins $5.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$195

Realized+$615

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 37

History coverage14d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	36¢	36¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	26¢	24¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 24	$102	−$100	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists	Jun 24	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 24	$58	−$58	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 24	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$153	+$188	+124%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$102	+$250	+244%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$216	+212%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$102	+$184	+180%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202	Jun 22	$101	+$66	+65%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$102	+$230	+225%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti:	Jun 20	$59	+$78	+132%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 19	$153	+$264	+172%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Will Swit	Jun 18	$162	+$165	+102%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win	Jun 17	$31	+$171	+557%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5	Jun 14	$30	+$23	+76%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$78	+$33	+42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$25	+$18	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$102	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	36¢	$102	1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bra	BUY	16¢	$103	21h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Morocco	40¢	$102	21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	7¢	$41	35h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-2.5) AND Spread: Morocc	BUY	3¢	$51	35h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND	BUY	6¢	$51	35h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will	BUY	23¢	$153	35h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Colombia lea	BUY	28¢	$143	38h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: Bot	BUY	31¢	$51	42h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$153	2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co	BUY	25¢	$102	2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND	BUY	17¢	$61	2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$58	2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	31¢	$102	2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	35¢	$102	2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202	BUY	60¢	$101	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	28¢	$102	4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY	30¢	$102	4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20	BUY	37¢	$102	5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. P	BUY	36¢	$102	5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti:	BUY	42¢	$59	5d
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY United States	36¢	$153	6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	40¢	$183	6d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Canada leading at	BUY	49¢	$48	6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Will Swit	BUY	49¢	$162	7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-	BUY	11¢	$31	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.69 · official $387.07 · 59 history records