Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
09 0x094e…6043 other 12 markets active 4d ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-18%) realized −$50 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$72
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.8% -14.8% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 6 -57.3% -61.4% 17% 17% -31.8%
≤90d 6 -57.3% -61.4% 17% 17% -31.8%
all 6 -57.3% -61.4% 17% 17% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.4% 17% -31.8%
10% -65.1% 17% -38.3%
15% -68.4% 0% -44.3%
20% -71.5% 0% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$17 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage39d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $106 $89 −$17 (-16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $9 −$6 -66%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $117 +$33 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $5 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 19¢ $10 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $109 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY 3¢ $10 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 11¢ $36 17d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 23d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? BUY Yes 81¢ $19 23d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? BUY Yes 81¢ $62 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 30d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 30d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 31d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 31d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 31d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 32d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.65 · official $96.65 (match) · 36 history records