Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
09 0x094e…8228 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$10
other 3% −$1
sports 2% $0
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +24.2% +12.3% 55% 52% -7.5%
≤30d 31 +24.2% +12.3% 55% 52% -7.5%
≤90d 31 +24.2% +12.3% 55% 52% -7.5%
all 31 +24.2% +12.3% 55% 52% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 52% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.6% 52% -16.3%
15% -8.2% 52% -24.4%
20% -17.2% 48% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 28¢ 8¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-73%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$37 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$31 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$8 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 7¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.87 · official $52.53 · 73 history records