Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0952…a336 sports 70 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,122 (-66%) realized −$1,123 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1,091
sports 21% −$26
world 1% −$9
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 36% -71.6%
≤30d 67 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 36% -71.6%
≤90d 67 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 36% -71.6%
all 67 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 36% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 36% -71.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 30% -74.4%
15% -39.1% 25% -76.8%
20% -45.1% 18% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$34 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$1,123
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$25 +64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$950 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$19 -64%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$10 -51%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$19 -37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2 25h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 25h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $2 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 40h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 40h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 40h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 40h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 40h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.38 · official $13.38 (match) · 144 history records