Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0957…5db6 weather 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,984 (+2%) realized +$6,974 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%760W / 21L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$564per market
Trades / day71.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$10,967
crypto 1% −$184
finance 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.0% -14.1% 78% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 650 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 1% -10.1%
≤90d 781 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -7.3%
all 781 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -7.3%
10% -18.2% 1% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 1% -24.3%
20% -33.4% 1% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$113 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.36 per $1 lost it wins $7.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$4,321
Realized+$6,974
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses760 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)781 / 785
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$564
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,940 $1,948 +$8 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,214 $1,215 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,157 $1,157 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $126 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $181 −$46 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$98 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $267 +$99 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $232 −$138 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $213 +$121 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $375 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $262 +$165 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $349 −$31 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $457 −$62 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $899 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,271 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,269 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,202 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,174 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $850 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,272 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,228 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,267 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $129 −$18 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $895 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,230 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,088 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,151 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,146 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,270 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,223 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,270 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,343 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,428 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 6? Jun 06 $358 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 6? Jun 06 $643 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,260 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2,346 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $851 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 5? Jun 05 $851 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1,687 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $44 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $44 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $33 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $39 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,320.55 · official $4,320.55 (match) · 3500 history records