Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0957…4834 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$12
world 21% −$4
sports 17% −$1
politics 15% −$7
tech 4% $0
finance 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 6 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 62 +2.4% -7.4% 18% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -16.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage288d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $11 −$4 -33%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $33 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $32 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $34 −$7 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 31 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $5 +$15 +270%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $6 $0 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $14 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $12 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $37 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $37 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $29 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $4 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $30 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $32 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $6 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $22 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $11 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $2 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 32d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records