Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x095b…25ca other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$825 (-11%) realized −$757 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%45W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$282
14 days+$91
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1,194
sports 39% +$280
culture 0% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +95.1% +76.5% 100% 75% +69.0%
≤30d 16 +12.3% +1.6% 88% 19% -10.0%
≤90d 46 -7.5% -16.3% 67% 22% -22.5%
all 64 -5.0% -14.0% 70% 27% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 27% -19.6%
10% -22.3% 25% -27.3%
15% -29.8% 23% -34.4%
20% -36.6% 22% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$113 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized−$757
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses45 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)64 / 69
History coverage134d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 54¢ 54¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $116 $82 −$34 (-29%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 38¢ $118 $75 −$43 (-36%)
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 32¢ $30 $63 +$33 (+111%)
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $48 $24 −$23 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $34 +$18 +52%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $66 +$158 +238%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $118 +$105 +90%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 20 Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 Jun 05 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ander Barrenetxea be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Fermín López be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Aymeric Laporte be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup sq May 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Pedro Porro be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ferran Torres be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squa May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 24 $202 +$9 +5%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $102 +$88 +86%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $51 +$65 +126%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $25 $0 +2%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 May 03 $60 +$43 +72%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Mar 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gra Mar 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Mar 29 $30 +$80 +267%
Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Mar 29 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran Mar 29 $155 +$71 +46%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $214 +$124 +58%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Pr Mar 28 $330 −$330 -100%
Game Handicap: VDN (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Mar 25 $45 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Mar 25 $410 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs DashSkins (BO3) - CCT South America Serie Mar 25 $310 +$308 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 25 $65 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs DashSkins - Map 2 Winner Mar 25 $70 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: DS (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Mar 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curlin Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling Mar 25 $54 −$54 -100%
AJ Green: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Wom Mar 25 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Barça eSports (BO3) - LES Kick-off Playoffs Mar 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling Mar 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 25 $142 −$142 -100%
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Feb 23 $25 −$23 -92%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs 4 SWINES & A BUM (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 13 $200 +$50 +25%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Feb 13 $61 +$11 +18%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Feb 13 $100 +$72 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $52 1h
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $108 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 54¢ $117 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $66 2d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 4d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $118 5d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 52¢ $118 6d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $75 13d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 13d
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $119 13d
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 13d
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 13d
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13d
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 13d
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 20 BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Pierre Gasly achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $126 14d
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 BUY No 98¢ $5 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $90 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $100 14d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 14d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 35¢ $90 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 70¢ $121 25d
Will Ander Barrenetxea be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup BUY No 99¢ $100 25d
Will Aymeric Laporte be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup sq BUY Yes 99¢ $100 25d
Will Ferran Torres be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squa BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25d
Will Pedro Porro be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25d
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? SELL Yes 75¢ $211 26d
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.70 · official $358.70 (match) · 169 history records