Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x095d…52cf
politics · 52 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$392,738 -158%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$341,942 · open −$44,064
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,166,067
Realized−$341,942
Unrealized−$44,064
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions89
Markets (closed)50 / 52
Avg bet$4,778
Trades / day387.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 89 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$342,431
7 days−$341,657
14 days−$341,942
30 days−$341,942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $150,000 $255,150 +$105,150 (+70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $147,042 $165,275 +$18,232 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 97¢ $110,715 $129,324 +$18,609 (+17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $54,985 $54,994 +$9 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $52,238 $54,434 +$2,196 (+4%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $50,580 $52,499 +$1,919 (+4%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $49,500 $50,633 +$1,133 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $50,498 $50,317 −$182 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $150,000 $44,850 −$105,150 (-70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 65¢ 88¢ $20,048 $27,162 +$7,114 (+35%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 66¢ 64¢ $26,157 $25,518 −$639 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 74¢ 81¢ $20,614 $22,612 +$1,998 (+10%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $21,042 $22,498 +$1,456 (+7%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $21,250 $21,190 −$60 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $16,422 $17,357 +$935 (+6%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $16,732 $16,984 +$252 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 84¢ $10,076 $13,575 +$3,499 (+35%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $12,033 $12,218 +$185 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $10,566 $12,136 +$1,570 (+15%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $11,269 $11,543 +$274 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $10,712 $11,162 +$450 (+4%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $6,135 $7,064 +$929 (+15%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,481 $6,544 +$62 (+1%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $4,806 $5,627 +$820 (+17%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $4,415 $4,979 +$564 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 12 $7,181 −$7,181 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $76,778 −$82,346 -107%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 12 $8,232 −$8,232 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 12 $4,557 −$4,557 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $134,198 −$134,198 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$314 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 12 $45,130 −$45,130 -100%
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jun 12 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $840 −$840 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $265 −$265 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 12 $130 +$1,941 +1490%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Jun 12 $419 −$419 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $30,233 −$30,225 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Jun 12 $612 −$612 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,267 −$1,267 -100%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Jun 12 $305 −$64 -21%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $17,132 −$17,213 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Jun 12 $141 −$141 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Jun 12 $2,555 −$2,555 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jun 12 $780 −$780 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $474 −$474 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Jun 12 $295 −$249 -84%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Jun 12 $77 +$2,621 +3415%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Jun 12 $1,176 −$1,176 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,221 −$1,221 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
GPT ads by March 31? Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Jun 12 $253 −$253 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 12 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4,866 −$4,866 -100%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $1,853 +$774 +42%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $177 +$23 +13%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $111 −$307 -277%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$83,609
politics 25% +$25,020
economics 9% +$75
world 4% +$14,304
finance 0% +$629
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 0m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 3m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $19 4m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 6m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $84 6m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $397 6m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 12m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 21m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 22m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $57 22m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $19 25m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 31m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 34m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 34m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 36m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $378 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 36m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 36m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 37m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 40m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 41m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $62 43m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 43m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $53 47m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 50m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 53m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 53m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -18.2% -26.0% 6% 6% -98.3%
≤30d 50 -19.2% -26.9% 8% 8% -98.2%
≤90d 50 -19.2% -26.9% 8% 8% -98.2%
all 50 -19.2% -26.9% 8% 8% -98.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover387.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 8% -98.2%
10% -33.9% 6% -98.4%
15% ← realistic here -40.3% 6% -98.5%
20% -46.1% 4% -98.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166,067.09 · official $1,166,069.99 (match) · 3500 history records