Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x095e…5062 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+2%) realized +$174 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days+$156
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$78
sports 46% +$116
crypto 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +9.1% -1.3% 34% 31% -6.9%
≤30d 71 +7.3% -3.0% 35% 32% -8.1%
≤90d 71 +7.3% -3.0% 35% 32% -8.1%
all 71 +7.3% -3.0% 35% 32% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 32% -8.1%
10% -12.2% 28% -16.9%
15% -20.7% 23% -25.0%
20% -28.5% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$28 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$498
Realized+$174
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage9d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $126 $116 −$10 (-8%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 82¢ 81¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 78¢ $84 $78 −$6 (-8%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $39 $57 +$17 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $106 −$3 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $135 −$3 -2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $327 −$6 -2%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $12 +$88 +712%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $248 +$42 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 +$125 +510%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $110 +$15 +13%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$2 -4%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $622 −$233 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $146 −$143 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$13 -26%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $37 −$6 -17%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $141 −$97 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$43 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $329 +$48 +14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $492 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -23%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 +$11 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $203 +$52 +26%
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $54 +$48 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $276 +$119 +43%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $156 +$112 +72%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 +$42 +77%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $208 +$47 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 −$16 -25%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 +$93 +1290%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $421 +$31 +7%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $457 +$33 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $143 −$45 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 82¢ $83 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $77 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $59 50m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $103 53m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $133 53m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $233 54m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $23 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $106 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $238 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 81¢ $56 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 82¢ $58 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $55 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $58 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $88 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $58 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $89 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 94¢ $94 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $84 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $127 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 10h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $43 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $124 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $124 11h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 7¢ $11 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.46 · official $498.59 (match) · 160 history records