Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
09 0x0962…6e40 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,123 (+17%) realized +$909 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%51W / 45L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$855
7 days+$1,355
14 days+$1,290
30 days+$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,369
crypto 6% −$62
other 5% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.7% -3.5% 55% 55% +19.2%
≤30d 73 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤90d 96 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 53% +7.1%
all 96 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 53% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 53% +7.1%
10% -17.0% 49% -3.2%
15% -25.0% 49% -12.5%
20% -32.3% 46% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$42 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized+$909
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses51 / 45
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage38d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 69¢ 98¢ $500 $714 +$214 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$12 +12%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $152 +$131 +86%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,013 +$527 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $204 +$384 +188%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $507 +$340 +67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,116 +$1,000 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$12 -60%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 +$37 +180%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$12 -23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Kosovo (-2.5) Jun 07 $5 +$9 +172%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $10 +$15 +145%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 04 $10 +$8 +79%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +70%
Philippines vs. Guam: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Philippines (-2.5) Jun 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $15 +$11 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $505 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $114 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 17h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 87¢ $1,541 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $152 17h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $1,013 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 25h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $204 41h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $847 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $507 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $303 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $509 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1,116 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $16 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $8 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $20 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $10 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $10 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.77 · official $713.77 (match) · 164 history records