Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0968…3c72 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-3%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$2
other 30% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.9% -26.7% 47% 47% -15.3%
≤30d 25 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 52% -12.9%
≤90d 25 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 52% -12.9%
all 25 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 52% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 52% -12.9%
10% -28.8% 48% -21.3%
15% -35.7% 44% -28.9%
20% -42.0% 32% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Thanasi Kokkinakis 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Marc-Andrea Huesler 79¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Otto Virtanen 60¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $1 +$1 +85%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 07 $1 +$1 +65%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 57¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens SELL Gabriela Ruse 57¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 33¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Gabriela Ruse 24¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 4d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 63¢ $1 4d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 66¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 62¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 52¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 60¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67¢ $1 4d
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva SELL Maria Timofeeva 100¢ $2 7d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 79¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.30 · official $3.30 (match) · 42 history records