Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

09 0x096c…1609 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$242 (+12%) realized +$234 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate80%12W / 3L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$123per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$116

7 days+$137

14 days+$137

30 days+$137

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+7.8%	-2.5%	80%	60%	+19.7%
≤30d	5	+7.8%	-2.5%	80%	60%	+19.7%
≤90d	15	+0.5%	-9.1%	80%	53%	+1.7%
all	15	+0.5%	-9.1%	80%	53%	+1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	53%	+1.7%
10%	-17.8%	47%	-8.0%
15%	-25.7%	27%	-16.9%
20%	-33.0%	7%	-25.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late -17% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$67 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage

Net worth$208

Realized+$234

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses12 / 3

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage70d

Avg bet$123

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	95¢	$200	$208	+$8 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$172	+$116	+67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$101	+$23	+23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Jun 18	$1	$0	+1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	May 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff	May 04	$211	+$51	+24%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	May 03	$101	−$101	-100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)	May 03	$71	+$31	+44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner	May 03	$100	+$19	+19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Apr 30	$260	+$19	+7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Apr 20	$190	+$70	+37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Apr 19	$180	+$10	+6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Apr 19	$141	+$39	+27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Apr 13	$135	+$6	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$201	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	12¢	$21	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	59¢	$172	31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	47¢	$51	3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	81¢	$101	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	BUY Team Falcons	40¢	$51	36d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff	BUY Vitality	80¢	$211	50d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner	BUY Vitality	83¢	$100	51d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)	BUY Vitality	69¢	$71	51d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	BUY FURIA	62¢	$101	53d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	BUY Vitality	93¢	$260	55d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs	BUY Vitality	72¢	$190	64d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$190	64d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	BUY Team Falcons	95¢	$127	64d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	BUY Team Falcons	93¢	$53	64d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	BUY Vitality	78¢	$141	65d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	BUY Vitality	96¢	$135	70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	99¢	$1	70d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.46 · official $228.46 · 31 history records