Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x096e…b1fb crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-10%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$127
14 days−$55
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$95
crypto 28% −$33
sports 24% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 40% -40.2%
≤30d 40 +5.0% -5.0% 30% 28% -38.9%
≤90d 58 +14.3% +3.4% 38% 33% -19.9%
all 58 +14.3% +3.4% 38% 33% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 33% -19.9%
10% -6.5% 28% -27.5%
15% -15.5% 26% -34.5%
20% -23.8% 21% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage53d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$30 -74%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$20 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$54 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$78 +1521%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$51 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Orgryte IS vs. IFK Goteborg end in a draw? May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $25 +$33 +128%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $15 +$83 +537%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 11 $5 +$14 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 03 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 TOUR Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 TOUR Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 46h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 TOUR Championship? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 5d
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records