Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x096f…9700 crypto 90 markets active 4d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-7%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%48W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$16
other 5% −$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -26.0% -33.1% 45% 34% -21.7%
≤30d 89 -16.3% -24.2% 54% 39% -17.0%
≤90d 89 -16.3% -24.2% 54% 39% -17.0%
all 89 -16.3% -24.2% 54% 39% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 39% -17.0%
10% -31.5% 25% -25.0%
15% -38.1% 18% -32.2%
20% -44.2% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses48 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 23 $3 −$2 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 251 history records