Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0970…5ae4 crypto 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41,791 (+91%) realized +$42,126 · open −$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%70W / 220L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$216
finance 1% −$346
world 0% +$70
other 0% −$7
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +20.4% +9.0% 22% 21% -13.5%
≤30d 224 +0.4% -9.2% 23% 21% -10.7%
≤90d 290 +2.3% -7.5% 24% 22% -10.6%
all 290 +2.3% -7.5% 24% 22% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 22% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 20% -19.1%
15% -24.4% 18% -26.9%
20% -31.8% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$59 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$879
Realized+$42,126
Unrealized−$335
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses70 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)290 / 256
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $323 $251 −$72 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $418 $245 −$173 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Yes 31¢ 29¢ $235 $218 −$17 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $49 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? No 32¢ 51¢ $26 $41 +$16 (+60%)
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $29 $21 −$8 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $47 $20 −$26 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 26? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $55 $5 −$50 (-90%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? No 49¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+65%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? No 15¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 30? Jun 26 $84 −$84 -101%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +1028%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 23? Jun 26 $61 −$84 -138%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $1 −$200 -19967%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 9? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1? Jun 26 $11 −$22 -204%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 7? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8? Jun 26 $30 −$38 -128%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $0 −$135 -46838%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $3 −$4 -147%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 27? Jun 26 $0 −$5 -932%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $7 +$32 +467%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? Jun 26 $56 −$29 -53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 25? Jun 26 $35 −$27 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $7 −$16 -211%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 5? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $6 −$23 -399%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26) Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10? Jun 26 $5 −$7 -156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 1? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $6 −$35 -561%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 10? Jun 26 $5 −$6 -114%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 24? Jun 26 $87 −$80 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 29? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? Jun 26 $66 −$20 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 23? Jun 26 $115 −$93 -81%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 22? Jun 26 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9? Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30? Jun 26 $10 −$23 -226%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 30? Jun 26 $96 −$98 -102%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $2 −$87 -3606%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 2? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? Jun 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 22? Jun 26 $104 −$122 -118%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 21? Jun 26 $3 +$489 +16120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26? Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 26 $7,719 +$238 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $429 +$491 +114%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $196 −$191 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $80 8m
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 24m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 24m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $162 28m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $395 28m
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 29m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 4¢ $94 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $190 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $131 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 44¢ $212 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $104 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $188 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $104 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $198 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $63 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $68 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $182 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 24¢ $44 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.37 · official $874.63 (match) · 3500 history records