Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0972…117a other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$151 (+18%) realized +$154 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$173
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$147
other 32% −$2
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +107.5% +87.7% 100% 100% +88.0%
≤90d 10 +12.0% +1.4% 90% 20% +15.6%
all 14 +9.1% -1.3% 93% 14% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 14% +13.1%
10% -10.8% 14% +2.2%
15% -19.4% 14% -7.6%
20% -27.3% 14% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$163 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage168d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $230 $227 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 +$173 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $135 +$137 +101%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 18 $23 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $165 −$163 -99%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January Feb 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30? Jan 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.07 · official $227.07 (match) · 31 history records