Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0975…bd23 crypto 807 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%235W / 554L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$3
14 days−$128
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$104
other 30% −$176
sports 14% −$22
weather 1% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +7.9% -2.4% 39% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 263 -14.4% -22.6% 36% 34% -21.4%
≤90d 516 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 31% -24.3%
all 789 -17.7% -25.5% 30% 27% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 27% -14.4%
10% -32.7% 25% -22.6%
15% -39.2% 22% -30.1%
20% -45.1% 19% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses235 / 554
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions15
Markets (closed)789 / 807
History coverage160d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 54¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+238%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 62¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 33¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+120%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 40¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+102%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 40¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 14¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
New Zealand to win the second half? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 36¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$2 +92%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +139%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$3 +145%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$6 +288%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$21 +678%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $3 +$5 +152%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$10 +237%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$17 +543%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 +$20 +970%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 53m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 53m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $2 55m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $2 55m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 56m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $2 57m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $2 57m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $3 57m
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 58m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $3 58m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 59m
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 59m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 59m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $3 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $8 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 2h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.76 · official $64.76 (match) · 2338 history records