Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0977…53cc sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized +$17 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%50W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$217
14 days+$312
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$214
crypto 28% −$250
other 18% +$82
politics 2% −$66
world 1% +$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 39% -1.5%
≤30d 68 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 40% +0.4%
≤90d 133 -13.6% -21.8% 38% 35% -9.0%
all 133 -13.6% -21.8% 38% 35% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -9.0%
10% -29.3% 30% -17.7%
15% -36.1% 25% -25.6%
20% -42.4% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses50 / 83
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions15
Markets (closed)133 / 148
History coverage82d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang Sakura Hosogi 37¢ 42¢ $263 $297 +$34 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Gabriela Ruse 32¢ 32¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 48¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 92¢ 92¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $23 $26 +$2 (+11%)
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 87¢ 86¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 54¢ 52¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 81¢ 83¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+2%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 24¢ 17¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 85¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 46¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-43%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $27 −$10 -36%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 26 $26 +$16 +60%
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $267 +$283 +106%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $158 +$205 +129%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $26 −$3 -12%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $26 −$2 -9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $26 +$41 +158%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$31 +31%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $374 +$46 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $269 −$119 -44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $26 −$4 -16%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 25 $26 −$1 -2%
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 25 $18 +$2 +14%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Jun 25 $26 +$3 +11%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Anna Kubareva vs Aliona Falei Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $26 +$9 +33%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $26 +$4 +16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $23 +$2 +8%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $3 +$2 +87%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $26 +$3 +14%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $225 −$142 -63%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $25 +$31 +124%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$10 +42%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 25 $25 +$12 +50%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $76 −$12 -16%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $14 −$2 -12%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$5 -20%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $25 −$2 -9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 −$5 -18%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $25 +$20 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$4 -16%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $25 −$9 -34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$1 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$1 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $22 +$8 +36%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$4 -17%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 −$6 -23%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $25 +$7 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $25 +$19 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 45¢ $26 6m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 48¢ $26 9m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 48¢ $26 9m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 48¢ $26 9m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 48¢ $26 9m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 47¢ $26 9m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 47¢ $26 9m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 28¢ $7 12m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 31¢ $2 14m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 31¢ $20 15m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 31¢ $8 15m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 54¢ $26 16m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 22¢ $23 17m
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 22¢ $23 17m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $26 17m
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 87¢ $26 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $25 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $26 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 32¢ $26 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) SELL Dallas Wings 43¢ $0 7h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL No 27¢ $16 7h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL No 79¢ $23 9h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $23 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 41¢ $22 15h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 78¢ $13 15h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 89¢ $26 15h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $27 15h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $26 15h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 15h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 58¢ $26 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.51 · official $741.45 · 301 history records