Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
09 0x097e…833a sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,665 (+2%) realized +$1,665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate86%18W / 3L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3,282per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days+$1,313
14 days+$2,026
30 days+$2,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,026
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.7% -7.1% 92% 8% -6.6%
≤30d 21 +2.6% -7.2% 86% 10% -6.9%
≤90d 21 +2.6% -7.2% 86% 10% -6.9%
all 21 +2.6% -7.2% 86% 10% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 10% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -15.8%
15% -24.2% 0% -23.9%
20% -31.6% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,863) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$513 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses18 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3,282
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $6,454 +$446 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $876 +$10 +1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2,800 +$349 +12%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $3,789 −$974 -26%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3,814 +$236 +6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $4,244 +$265 +6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3,863 +$382 +10%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 24 $3,874 $0 +0%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 23 $71 $0 +0%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 23 $3,271 +$67 +2%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $495 +$4 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3,791 +$375 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $3,480 +$151 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3,682 +$409 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,846 −$171 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3,743 +$114 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $3,664 +$75 +2%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $1,587 +$16 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $3,596 +$319 +9%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3,996 −$396 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,982 +$346 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $3,624 19m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $614 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $1,011 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $353 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $101 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $910 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $313 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 93¢ $3,276 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $3,152 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 98¢ $438 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 98¢ $66 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 98¢ $49 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 98¢ $333 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $323 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $34 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $485 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $34 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $3,149 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1,106 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,695 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 69¢ $2,815 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,838 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $558 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $558 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $279 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $558 6h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $3,814 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $4,388 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 62¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records