Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0982…4ac3 politics 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+0%) realized +$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 57L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$13
politics 22% −$11
other 11% −$39
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% +$164
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.9% +7.5% 17% 17% -4.0%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.0% 10% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 56 +5.0% -5.0% 18% 14% -7.4%
all 71 +3.5% -6.3% 20% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 11% -9.1%
10% -15.3% 11% -17.8%
15% -23.5% 10% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$2 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage598d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $190 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 30 $185 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $197 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 25 $184 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $201 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $185 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $402 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 10 $11 +$10 +89%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $15 +$7 +48%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $15 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $71 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 12h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 32h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $10 33h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 34h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 10d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $8 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 11d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.42 · official $146.42 (match) · 279 history records