Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0983…3852 crypto 1579 markets active 3h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate83%1324W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$70
14 days−$68
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
sports 0% +$1
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -45.7% -50.9% 48% 28% -47.4%
≤30d 117 -19.8% -27.4% 70% 44% -24.4%
≤90d 903 -4.1% -13.3% 83% 44% -8.8%
all 1600 -2.2% -11.6% 83% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 36% -9.0%
10% -20.0% 1% -17.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1324 / 276
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1600 / 1579
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1600 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2070%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1907%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$8 -5003%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1514%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2010%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 98¢ $2 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 44h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records