Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0984…5933 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$34 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 43L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$453
7 days+$29
14 days+$102
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$117
sports 14% −$54
crypto 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -27.3% -34.2% 29% 29% -7.9%
≤30d 32 -21.1% -28.6% 31% 31% -5.0%
≤90d 48 -42.5% -47.9% 23% 23% -6.4%
all 54 -48.9% -53.7% 20% 20% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.7% 20% -8.7%
10% -58.2% 19% -17.4%
15% -62.2% 15% -25.4%
20% -65.9% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$17 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 43
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage99d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 +$37 +37%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $203 +$259 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $403 +$77 +19%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $81 +$112 +137%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$60 +291%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $71 +$91 +128%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$85 +415%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -93%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 49m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 49m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $190 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 27h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $51 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 27h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $138 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.28 · official $574.72 (match) · 113 history records