Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0988…358e crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
politics 32% −$28
crypto 16% $0
sports 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.7%
all 47 -6.0% -15.0% 62% 2% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 2% -11.8%
10% -23.1% 0% -20.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -28.0%
20% -37.4% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage153d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $148 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 +1%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $160 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $278 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 2? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 1? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 21? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on March 6? Mar 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $57 −$7 -12%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $48 −$5 -11%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $36 −$4 -11%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $34 −$4 -11%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $31 −$4 -12%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $30 −$4 -12%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $11 −$4 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $138 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $138 22h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $130 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $143 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $145 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $145 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $119 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $0 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $148 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 20d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No 85¢ $170 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 20d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 84¢ $168 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $160 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $272 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $138 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $140 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $160 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $121 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records