Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0989…5a32 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$4
other 29% −$2
politics 9% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -5.2% -14.2% 34% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -10.3%
10% -22.4% 5% -18.8%
15% -29.9% 5% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage364d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $38 +$2 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $57 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $17 −$4 -22%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Nov 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Aug 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $1 $0 -47%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $58 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $57 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $57 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $38 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records