Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0989…dbdf crypto 185 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-8%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%60W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day99.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$15
weather 8% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -12.9% -21.2% 32% 31% -21.2%
≤30d 185 -12.9% -21.2% 32% 31% -21.2%
≤90d 185 -12.9% -21.2% 32% 31% -21.2%
all 185 -12.9% -21.2% 32% 31% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 31% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 28% -28.8%
15% -35.6% 26% -35.6%
20% -41.9% 23% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses60 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day99.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -48%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -84%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records