trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 8 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 25% | 12% | -7.3% |
| all | 10 | -17.1% | -25.0% | 40% | 20% | -7.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.0% | 20% | -7.2% |
| 10% | -32.2% | 10% | -16.1% |
| 15% | -38.7% | 0% | -24.2% |
| 20% | -44.7% | 0% | -31.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 43¢ | 56¢ | $50 | $65 | +$15 (+29%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | $50 | $54 | +$4 (+8%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 84¢ | 88¢ | $50 | $52 | +$2 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2? | May 02 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2? | May 02 | $20 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 2? | May 02 | $18 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 2? | May 02 | $10 | −$8 | -83% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 2? | May 02 | $29 | −$7 | -25% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2? | May 02 | $20 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $99 | +$23 | +23% |
| Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M | Mar 07 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 06 | $1 | $0 | +4% |