Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
09 0x098d…6cc2 crypto 590 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$945 (-4%) realized −$1,737 · open +$792
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%317W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$72
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$463
crypto 25% −$823
other 24% −$393
politics 6% +$776
world 6% −$193
weather 1% −$15
finance 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +3.8% -6.1% 59% 54% -5.3%
≤30d 75 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 44% -20.7%
≤90d 240 -2.5% -11.7% 52% 44% -16.2%
all 579 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 49% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 49% -18.1%
10% -24.2% 39% -26.0%
15% -31.5% 29% -33.1%
20% -38.2% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$2,050
Realized−$1,737
Unrealized+$792
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses317 / 262
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions7
Markets (closed)579 / 590
History coverage133d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 52¢ 96¢ $981 $1,808 +$827 (+84%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 31¢ 34¢ $90 $102 +$12 (+13%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? No 21¢ 12¢ $94 $54 −$40 (-43%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 58¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 45¢ 39¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 43¢ 36¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $22 +$9 +39%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $12 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $7 +$5 +71%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $6 −$5 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 $0 -4%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +71%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$2 +20%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 27 $9 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 26 $101 +$23 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 25 $16 +$2 +11%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 25 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 −$7 -60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $47 −$11 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $26 −$4 -16%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 25 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 +$14 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $96 +$31 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 24 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $78 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$88 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $58 −$23 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 81¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 1 Winner SELL Game Hunters 49¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa - Map 1 Winner BUY Game Hunters 50¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 99¢ $12 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 63¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $7 3h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L SELL Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $18 3h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 55¢ $10 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $6 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 10h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,050.16 · official $2,050.19 (match) · 1598 history records