Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x0991…9eca other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$14
politics 29% −$8
sports 8% +$20
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -3.2% -12.4% 3% 3% -9.7%
all 111 +0.6% -9.0% 7% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×12.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage114d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $511 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $134 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $438 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $243 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $395 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $211 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $211 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $184 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $184 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 32d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 32d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $204 33d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $167 35d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $167 35d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 36d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records