Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x0997…f30d other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$298 (+25%) realized +$266 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$14
sports 27% +$328
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +15.1% +4.1% 41% 38% +15.0%
≤30d 34 +15.1% +4.1% 41% 38% +15.0%
≤90d 34 +15.1% +4.1% 41% 38% +15.0%
all 34 +15.1% +4.1% 41% 38% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 38% +15.0%
10% -5.9% 38% +4.0%
15% -15.0% 35% -6.0%
20% -23.3% 29% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$26 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 52¢ 86¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$42 +54%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$69 +113%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$52 -51%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$181 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 +$99 +291%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$40 +250%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$73 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $78 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $46 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.21 · official $82.21 (match) · 56 history records