Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

09 0x09a3…2349 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$8,613 (+43%) realized +$10,463 · open −$1,850

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$1,166per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$100est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,362

7 days+$2,993

14 days+$2,993

30 days+$8,550

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+35.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-15.0%	-23.1%	55%	55%	+8.5%
≤30d	14	+60.6%	+45.3%	57%	57%	+33.8%
≤90d	15	+49.9%	+35.6%	53%	53%	+33.4%
all	15	+49.9%	+35.6%	53%	53%	+33.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+35.6%	53%	+33.4%
10%	+22.6%	40%	+20.6%
15%	+10.8%	40%	+9.0%
20%	-0.1%	33%	-1.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +124% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,321 vs −$295 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.11 per $1 lost it wins $5.11

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$10,463

Unrealized−$1,850

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Est. fees paid−$100

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage35d

Avg bet$1,166

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Under	65¢	0¢	$1,323	$1	−$1,322 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Under	43¢	0¢	$529	$1	−$528 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$643	+$532	+83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$669	−$664	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$3,898	+$616	+16%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$685	+$589	+86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$685	+$639	+93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$77	−$75	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$77	−$75	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$128	−$125	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$77	−$75	-97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$1,074	+$426	+40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$7,040	+$1,205	+17%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	May 30	$1,294	+$947	+73%
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5	May 24	$1,012	−$1,000	-99%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	May 22	$539	+$5,611	+1040%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	May 16	$52	−$52	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$538	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	65¢	$1,337	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$352	21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$316	21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	86¢	$864	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	86¢	$1,555	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	86¢	$87	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	86¢	$7	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	86¢	$1,386	23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$643	23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	53¢	$685	45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	8¢	$77	47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	5¢	$77	47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	12¢	$128	47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	5¢	$77	47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$685	47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	71¢	$1,074	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	85¢	$7,040	2d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$1,294	21d
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$1,012	27d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	7¢	$38	35d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	35d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	35d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	35d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$539	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.63 · official $1.63 (match) · 35 history records