Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09a3…0529 sports 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate41%101W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$41
crypto 30% +$4
other 26% −$60
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -25.5% -32.6% 42% 39% -8.4%
≤30d 49 -12.7% -21.0% 47% 41% -8.7%
≤90d 49 -12.7% -21.0% 47% 41% -8.7%
all 249 -6.0% -15.0% 41% 23% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 23% -10.6%
10% -23.1% 18% -19.1%
15% -30.5% 14% -26.9%
20% -37.3% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses101 / 148
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)249 / 251
History coverage164d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 64¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$25 +123%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$26 +83%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $27 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$8 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $22 −$9 -42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 19 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $92 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $90 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.80 · official $25.80 (match) · 709 history records