Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09a4…8f9a
crypto · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$153 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$153 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$153
14 days+$153
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $425 +$318 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $127 −$123 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$20 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$18 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$27 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$153
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $425 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 38¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.0% -17.6% 48% 39% +6.0%
≤30d 23 -9.0% -17.6% 48% 39% +6.0%
≤90d 23 -9.0% -17.6% 48% 39% +6.0%
all 23 -9.0% -17.6% 48% 39% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 39% +6.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 30% -4.2%
15% -32.7% 22% -13.4%
20% -39.3% 17% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 72 history records