Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09a5…0306 crypto 1003 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,276 (+2%) realized +$1,322 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%509W / 487L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$662est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$959
14 days+$1,132
30 days+$1,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$1,291
other 34% +$1,962
crypto 22% −$2,164
tech 3% −$84
world 0% −$316
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% −$6
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 49% +7.9%
≤30d 80 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 48% +7.7%
≤90d 482 +2.8% -6.9% 50% 47% -2.5%
all 996 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -8.7%
10% -19.1% 40% -17.4%
15% -26.9% 36% -25.4%
20% -34.1% 30% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$55 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$1,322
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses509 / 487
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$662
Open positions4
Markets (closed)996 / 1003
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $43 $56 +$14 (+32%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 29¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$20 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$4 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +134%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 +$8 +48%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +44%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $788 +$237 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $396 +$156 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 −$1 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $68 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$81 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$49 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 +$67 +124%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $96 +$54 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $74 +$87 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +80%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$74 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 14¢ $7 20m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $5 23m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 35¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $13 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 29h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $17 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 39¢ $46 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 40¢ $49 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $833 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $49 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $295 46h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $61 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $124 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $54 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 47h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $200 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $127 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.47 · official $74.47 · 3500 history records