Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09a7…89fd
world · 139 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$412 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$212 · open −$202
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized−$212
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses72 / 55
Open positions12
Markets (closed)127 / 139
History coverage345d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 12 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 90¢ 91¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 89¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 75¢ 54¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 58¢ 1¢ $200 $3 −$197 (-99%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on May 21 $10 +$11 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $5 +$13 +257%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $218 −$218 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Mar 31 $4 −$1 -30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 St Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? Mar 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 10 $3 $0 +10%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11? Mar 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12? Mar 09 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $114 +$19 +17%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $1 +$30 +2985%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $9 +$45 +488%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Khamenei seen in public by March 1? Mar 01 $50 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Trump say "Canada" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $1 +$2 +245%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 25 $1 +$5 +525%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 24 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Feb 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Trump say "Powell" or "Too Late" during the State of the Union ad Feb 17 $2 +$1 +30%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine P Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during Septem Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Expert" or "Genius" during WEF Address on January 21? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Global" during WEF Address on January 2 Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% −$454
crypto 11% −$8
politics 6% +$32
other 6% +$23
tech 4% −$8
finance 4% +$1
economics 1% +$2
sports 1% −$3
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? BUY No 78¢ $10 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? BUY No 90¢ $10 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 89¢ $10 17d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 95¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 19d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL Yes 20¢ $21 24d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 33d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? BUY No 91¢ $10 35d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 93¢ $10 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 45d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 85¢ $10 54d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $7 75d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 75d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 84d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 87d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 89d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 81¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 94d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 34¢ $3 96d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 96d
Iran leadership change by March 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 97d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 31¢ $3 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +113.3% +93.0% 100% 100% +93.0%
≤90d 20 -38.5% -44.3% 30% 25% -85.7%
all 127 +49.2% +35.0% 57% 39% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.0% 39% -27.4%
10% +22.1% 32% -34.3%
15% +10.3% 26% -40.7%
20% -0.5% 22% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.04 · official $102.04 (match) · 361 history records