Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
09 0x09a8…47c1 weather 417 markets active 7h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,387 (+5%) realized +$13,232 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%348W / 66L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$632
7 days+$2,604
14 days+$4,175
30 days+$4,283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$7,152
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +6.9% -3.3% 83% 30% -1.4%
≤30d 171 +13.0% +2.2% 84% 18% -5.5%
≤90d 414 +7.1% -3.1% 84% 19% -7.4%
all 414 +7.1% -3.1% 84% 19% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 19% -7.4%
10% -12.4% 12% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -20.9% 8% -24.3%
20% -28.6% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$898) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$104 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,303
Realized+$13,232
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses348 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)414 / 417
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$689
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $972 $1,081 +$109 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 83¢ 100¢ $105 $128 +$22 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $71 $94 +$23 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $821 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $484 +$20 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$222 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $223 +$356 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $598 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $178 +$22 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $170 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 −$76 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$26 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $172 +$18 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $68 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $559 +$505 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $423 +$144 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 13 $94 +$58 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 13 $777 −$374 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $598 +$304 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$4 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 +$75 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $266 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 −$43 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$5 +15%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$74 +146%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$28 +107%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5,494 +$66 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $288 +$54 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,296 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$6 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,125 +$25 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $214 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $95 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $58 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $115 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 88¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $62 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $60 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $87 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $87 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $218 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $198 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $49 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $216 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $75 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $70 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,303.02 · official $1,303.02 (match) · 3500 history records