Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09a9…5b9b sports 6 markets active 7d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-51%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$13
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -81.9% -83.7% 0% 0% -61.4%
≤90d 5 -81.9% -83.7% 0% 0% -61.4%
all 5 -81.9% -83.7% 0% 0% -61.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.7% 0% -61.4%
10% -85.2% 0% -65.1%
15% -86.7% 0% -68.5%
20% -88.0% 0% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $5 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $9 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $1 11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $1 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records