Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ad…d4f2 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$284 (-23%) realized −$283 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$313
14 days−$334
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$314
other 9% −$3
tech 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 36% -42.3%
≤30d 39 -29.1% -35.8% 38% 36% -36.5%
≤90d 39 -29.1% -35.8% 38% 36% -36.5%
all 39 -29.1% -35.8% 38% 36% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 36% -36.5%
10% -42.0% 33% -42.6%
15% -47.6% 26% -48.1%
20% -52.7% 23% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$41 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$37 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$33 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$42 +79%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $22 −$17 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $22 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.78 · official $72.78 (match) · 82 history records