Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x09b0…a3b6 sports 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$613 (+17%) realized +$576 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%217W / 101L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$117
14 days+$245
30 days+$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$340
other 35% +$207
world 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 45% -3.6%
≤30d 318 +41.5% +28.0% 68% 64% +4.1%
≤90d 318 +41.5% +28.0% 68% 64% +4.1%
all 318 +41.5% +28.0% 68% 64% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.0% 64% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here +15.8% 53% -5.8%
15% +4.6% 42% -14.9%
20% -5.7% 31% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$576
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses217 / 101
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)318 / 320
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $32 $51 +$19 (+61%)
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $32 $50 +$17 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 −$8 -24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$3 -10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $32 −$4 -11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$7 -20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $33 −$4 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$2 -7%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $33 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 +$19 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $33 +$17 +50%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$22 -65%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $33 +$11 +32%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $23 +$10 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $33 +$10 +30%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $33 +$19 +58%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 +$4 +12%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$4 -32%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $33 −$3 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $33 −$1 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$10 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 +$5 +14%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $33 +$22 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +278%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $33 +$11 +35%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$43 +130%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $34 +$28 +83%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $33 +$29 +87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $33 +$11 +35%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$6 +19%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$7 +22%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$6 -17%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$2 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 −$12 -37%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 −$2 -6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$4 -12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $33 −$26 -78%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $32 48m
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 53m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $29 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 32¢ $26 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 60¢ $31 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 38¢ $32 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $33 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $33 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $32 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $33 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $31 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $21 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $49 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $33 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 25h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $43 45h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 45h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $25 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 86¢ $43 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.96 · official $100.96 (match) · 792 history records