Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09b2…1911 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,267 (+11%) realized +$607 · open +$660
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$4,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days+$84
14 days+$213
30 days+$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$966
other 33% −$410
crypto 31% +$598
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.8% +7.5% 50% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 29 +13.7% +2.8% 45% 41% +1.3%
≤90d 29 +13.7% +2.8% 45% 41% +1.3%
all 53 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 36% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 36% -2.1%
10% -30.5% 34% -11.5%
15% -37.2% 28% -20.1%
20% -43.4% 25% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$65 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$4,174
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$660
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions20
Markets (closed)53 / 83
History coverage103d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,005 $3,703 +$698 (+23%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 38¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 38¢ 36¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 37¢ 36¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Yes $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 1 Iraq? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $7 +$4 (+172%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $914 −$232 -25%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $44 −$43 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $617 +$126 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $129 +$232 +180%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 +$352 +172%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 +$70 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$251 +124%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $511 +$8 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$332 +325%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 +$109 +238%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $307 −$16 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $90 +$224 +250%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $502 −$494 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $103 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $88 +$101 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $503 +$589 +117%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $100 −$37 -37%
Pacers vs. Spurs Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $10 +$5 +55%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $10 +$12 +122%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 17 $10 +$4 +45%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $18 55m
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 55m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 56m
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 56m
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes $29 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 31¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 27¢ $51 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 65¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $485 1h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $44 16h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Curaçao BUY 15¢ $154 16h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $198 17h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 37h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 17¢ $92 37h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-2 BUY 16¢ $154 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,543 38h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs BUY $77 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Norway vs BUY $154 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,173.79 · official $4,173.79 (match) · 242 history records