Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09b4…494b other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$921 (-11%) realized −$753 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 45L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$574
7 days−$803
14 days−$879
30 days−$879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$737
sports 16% −$51
world 8% −$55
politics 7% −$144
tech 6% −$47
finance 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.1% -25.0% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤30d 46 -14.6% -22.7% 2% 0% -19.7%
≤90d 46 -14.6% -22.7% 2% 0% -19.7%
all 46 -14.6% -22.7% 2% 0% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 0% -19.7%
10% -30.1% 0% -27.4%
15% -36.9% 0% -34.4%
20% -43.0% 0% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$753
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage9d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 83¢ 26¢ $166 $51 −$115 (-69%)
Will Michael Olise win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 9¢ $38 $18 −$20 (-53%)
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $36 $6 −$30 (-85%)
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $120 −$17 -14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $27 −$7 -27%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $104 −$25 -24%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $38 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $54 −$4 -7%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $28 −$5 -17%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $244 −$18 -7%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $68 −$19 -28%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 16 $250 −$5 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $340 −$54 -16%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B Jun 16 $311 −$58 -19%
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 16 $32 −$21 -65%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $820 −$299 -36%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $48 −$16 -34%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $279 −$25 -9%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 14 $137 −$5 -4%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 14 $22 −$3 -14%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $261 −$3 -1%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 13 $66 −$16 -24%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $250 −$24 -10%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $29 −$7 -26%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $42 −$9 -21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $134 −$50 -37%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $42 −$12 -30%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $87 −$11 -13%
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zam Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $560 −$70 -12%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Jun 10 $31 −$14 -46%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $54 −$3 -5%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 09 $96 −$9 -9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $120 −$9 -8%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125 Jun 08 $222 −$1 -1%
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 08 $123 −$15 -12%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $590 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 07 $258 −$12 -5%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 07 $156 −$30 -19%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $660 $0 +0%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $700 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 19m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 19m
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 27¢ $103 29m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 4¢ $6 29m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 29m
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 30¢ $120 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 9¢ $9 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 9¢ $5 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 9¢ $27 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $38 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 42¢ $41 2h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 42¢ $42 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 10¢ $23 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 12¢ $28 4h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $211 4h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $15 4h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $244 4h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 47¢ $9 5h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 59¢ $12 5h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL No 33¢ $49 7h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 45¢ $68 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 62¢ $12 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 75¢ $22 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 75¢ $38 9h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL Yes 50¢ $245 9h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY Yes 50¢ $250 9h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $154 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.73 · official $74.67 (match) · 179 history records