Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09b6…f48d sports 149 markets active 3h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$869 (+0%) realized +$890 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate65%91W / 50L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,290per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$4,180est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$231
14 days+$214
30 days+$1,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$338
world 4% +$165
other 2% +$310
crypto 1% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +57.2% +42.3% 57% 29% -5.9%
≤30d 33 +9.4% -1.1% 61% 15% -7.4%
≤90d 141 +2.3% -7.5% 65% 11% -9.3%
all 141 +2.3% -7.5% 65% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 11% -9.3%
10% -16.3% 6% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,367) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$81 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$890
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses91 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$4,180
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 149
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$1,290
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Gabriela Knutson 19¢ 16¢ $227 $202 −$25 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win Jun 20 $51 +$217 +425%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $115 +$88 +76%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,665 +$23 +1%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $2,645 −$46 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $135 +$2 +2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $75 −$1 -2%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $1,757 −$64 -4%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $905 +$95 +10%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $611 +$12 +2%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 15 $780 −$94 -12%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $309 −$56 -18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $1,951 +$40 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $4,243 +$28 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $515 +$1 +0%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $75 +$2 +2%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 10 $344 +$18 +5%
Bratislava: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 09 $3,169 +$331 +10%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 08 $2,940 +$60 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3,117 +$59 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $3,427 +$38 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $335 −$7 -2%
ITF Luan: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Tsung Hao Huang Jun 04 $3,084 +$147 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $866 −$10 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $55 +$45 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 01 $2,589 −$20 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 31 $163 −$163 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $2,986 +$114 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $2,908 +$92 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1,808 −$5 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $2,680 +$320 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $2,805 −$62 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 24 $1 $0 -10%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $2,685 +$15 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 22 $397 +$55 +14%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $2,295 −$15 -1%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $360 +$9 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $2,367 −$15 -1%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $515 −$7 -1%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $270 +$4 +2%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $1,761 +$36 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 19 $325 +$30 +9%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Elmer Moeller vs Timofey Skatov May 19 $1,015 −$15 -2%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $3,173 −$1,368 -43%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $1,051 +$363 +34%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,029 +$133 +4%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $37 +$9 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $973 −$348 -36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 14 $739 +$26 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 18¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 18¢ $89 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug BUY 12¢ $51 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 18¢ $25 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $1 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $4 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $10 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $8 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $0 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $2 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $2 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 20¢ $87 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 31¢ $51 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. Senegal: Bot BUY 8¢ $51 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026 BUY 11¢ $56 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $115 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $2,356 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $326 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win BUY 19¢ $51 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $244 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $310 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $569 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $637 4d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $50 4d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $100 4d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.04 · official $279.04 · 3500 history records