Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ba…30b7 other 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,034 (+2%) realized +$4,032 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%39W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,504per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$33
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$263
politics 41% −$154
sports 10% +$4,410
economics 2% −$3
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +0.6% -9.0% 10% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -7.4% -16.3% 7% 4% -9.4%
all 171 +1.4% -8.3% 23% 10% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 10% -8.1%
10% -17.1% 9% -16.9%
15% -25.1% 9% -24.9%
20% -32.4% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,976) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$7 · ×17.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized+$4,032
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses39 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,504
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $322 $322 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $259 $261 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $4,909 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,252 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $342 +$2 +1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,732 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,886 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,976 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $637 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,236 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $2,234 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,999 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,818 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $7,040 −$8 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $4,571 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,427 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $74 +$63 +86%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,797 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,291 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,510 −$6 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,476 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,081 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,785 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $56 +$41 +73%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $2,255 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $63 +$64 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $322 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $285 21h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $285 23h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $250 24h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $251 27h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $285 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $285 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $516 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $516 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $661 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $662 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $718 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $719 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $671 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $672 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $622 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $623 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $717 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $718 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $751 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $752 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $650 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $651 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $782 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $700 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $700 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $636 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.66 · official $582.66 (match) · 679 history records