Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x09bb…f8b1 politics 441 markets active 1h ago coverage 681d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35,159 (-4%) realized −$36,071 · open +$912
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%186W / 228L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,217per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,692
7 days+$8,807
14 days+$9,274
30 days+$9,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$21,288
other 12% −$343
world 9% −$9,666
crypto 4% +$1,333
sports 4% +$1,258
economics 2% −$5,644
tech 1% −$2,824
culture 0% −$48
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 40% +41.5%
≤30d 9 +54.8% +40.1% 33% 33% +36.7%
≤90d 61 +8.0% -2.3% 38% 31% +5.6%
all 414 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 35% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 35% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 26% -21.4%
15% -34.9% 17% -29.0%
20% -41.3% 10% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,992) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$685 vs −$729 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$16,008
Realized−$36,071
Unrealized+$912
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses186 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions27
Markets (closed)414 / 441
History coverage681d
Avg bet$2,217
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $3,010 $3,738 +$728 (+24%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $2,746 $2,870 +$124 (+5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 66¢ $2,631 $2,667 +$36 (+1%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1,433 $1,388 −$45 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 57¢ 56¢ $1,000 $974 −$26 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $533 $540 +$7 (+1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $429 $436 +$7 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 43¢ 44¢ $365 $366 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $233 $347 +$114 (+49%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $350 $329 −$21 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 41¢ 42¢ $279 $290 +$11 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 47¢ $273 $231 −$42 (-15%)
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $250 $225 −$25 (-10%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 74¢ 77¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $177 $195 +$18 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+4%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $124 $138 +$14 (+11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 54¢ 51¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $88 $71 −$17 (-19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 95¢ $44 $66 +$22 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $107 −$98 -91%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $11,346 +$8,789 +78%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2,905 −$160 -6%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $1,215 +$283 +23%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$8 -16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $82 +$516 +629%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 26 $250 −$60 -24%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 23 $2,026 −$11 -1%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $8,799 −$3,428 -39%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $705 +$99 +14%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7,408 −$2,570 -35%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 15 $384 +$2,896 +753%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 14 $359 −$47 -13%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 14 $150 −$60 -40%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 11 $6,452 +$2,076 +32%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 08 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 07 $350 −$160 -46%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 05 $2,241 +$529 +24%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 04 $100 −$27 -26%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 03 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 03 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el May 01 $36 −$35 -96%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 01 $1,202 −$20 -2%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri Apr 30 $634 −$93 -15%
Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral ele Apr 29 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Apr 28 $300 −$11 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $633 +$222 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Apr 25 $148 −$70 -47%
Will Mehmood Mirza win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elect Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 24 $3,812 +$3,577 +94%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Apr 23 $100 −$18 -18%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 23 $125 −$25 -20%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 22 $900 −$27 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $100 −$27 -27%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$47 +47%
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 U Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 20 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 20 $109 +$40 +37%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $4,692 +$94 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 17 $500 −$96 -19%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 17 $1,000 −$35 -4%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $4,490 +$164 +4%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $8,135 +$3,267 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $250 +$253 +101%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $98 +$130 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 56m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 2¢ $10 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $50 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 57¢ $1,057 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 22¢ $107 4h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,680 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 49¢ $52 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1,040 12h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,629 27h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $212 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $212 32h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 92¢ $19,066 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 36h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $85 36h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $106 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $312 2d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 75¢ $105 2d
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect BUY No 74¢ $105 2d
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect BUY No 74¢ $105 2d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $211 3d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $106 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $260 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $520 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,584 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $106 4d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,498 4d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $130 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,008.50 · official $16,002.99 (match) · 2544 history records