Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09bc…df12 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,330 (-14%) realized −$2,204 · open −$126
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$640per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$948
14 days−$3,062
30 days−$2,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,568
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 25 -24.1% -31.3% 44% 40% -23.3%
≤90d 25 -24.1% -31.3% 44% 40% -23.3%
all 25 -24.1% -31.3% 44% 40% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 40% -23.3%
10% -37.9% 40% -30.6%
15% -43.9% 40% -37.3%
20% -49.4% 40% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$984) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$586 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$2,204
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage24d
Avg bet$640
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ 52¢ $495 $370 −$126 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $110 −$108 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $851 −$840 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,524 +$1,207 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,134 −$2,101 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,021 +$660 +65%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $1,000 −$985 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $997 −$984 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $79 +$70 +89%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $247 +$17 +7%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $100 +$70 +70%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 04 $498 +$309 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $2,196 +$1,890 +86%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $198 −$196 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $962 −$953 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $719 −$712 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $399 −$394 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $636 +$488 +77%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $599 −$591 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $199 −$197 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 30 $43 −$42 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $49 +$44 +90%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $241 +$130 +54%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 29 $90 −$49 -54%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $49 −$48 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 28 $1,196 +$870 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $200 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $200 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $32 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $68 10h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 52¢ $110 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $300 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $551 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2,732 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 55¢ $1,524 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $452 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $5 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $1,677 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $9 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 47¢ $183 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 47¢ $102 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 48¢ $102 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 47¢ $102 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 50¢ $101 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 50¢ $102 9d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 50¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.53 · official $369.53 (match) · 71 history records